How Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing summit is another twist in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.