🔗 Share this article

Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.